Goldman Sachs Forecasted Rising Global Gas Prices
Industrial operators face potential demand destruction as LNG export constraints threaten to surge energy costs this winter.
Updated on Sept. 21, 2026 in Oil and Gas
Live Poll
Do you expect energy costs in your area to rise over the coming months?
Goldman Sachs has forecasted that TTF gas prices could hit 105 euros per MWh and JKM prices could reach $35 per MMBtu by year-end, driven by constraints on Persian Gulf LNG exports. These prices would significantly exceed current base-case projections for European and Asian industrial markets.
Why it matters
Rising energy costs place severe pressure on industrial margins and complicate global monetary policy, with higher prices potentially forcing central banks like the European Central Bank to consider interest rate hikes. Sustained high prices are expected to trigger industrial demand destruction, as seen with Indian users nearing their $30 per MMBtu threshold.
Goldman Sachs projects TTF gas prices reaching 105 euros per MWh and JKM prices hitting $35 per MMBtu by year-end, significantly above the 70 euro and $25 base cases. Industrial demand destruction becomes a critical risk once prices exceed the $30 per MMBtu threshold.
The players
Goldman Sachs
A global investment bank that provides financial services and market research on commodity trends.
European Central Bank
The central bank responsible for monetary policy in the Eurozone, currently debating interest rate adjustments.
Yannis Stournaras
A central banker involved in European monetary policy discussions regarding potential interest rate hikes.
US Central Command
The unified combatant command responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East and surrounding regions.
The details
Flexible LNG cargoes are sold to whichever region—Europe or Northeast Asia—offers the higher price, linking TTF and JKM benchmarks. If Gulf LNG export constraints persist, importers will be forced to pass these increased costs downstream to industrial customers. Chinese industrial users have already signaled shifts toward coal, while other regions face potential production cuts as energy costs rise.
Timeline
Strait of Hormuz shipments reached a six-month high during the past two weeks.
Yannis Stournaras discussed a potential October rate rise last week.
Gas prices remain dependent on Gulf LNG flow levels throughout this winter.
Target price projections for TTF and JKM are set for year-end.
Market Landscape
Energy price volatility is currently testing the European Central Bank interest rate setting framework as surging gas costs threaten to alter the central bank's inflation outlook. This development follows a pattern where commodity-linked industrial demand destruction forces central banks to weigh recession risks against inflation control.
Industrial operators should prepare for potential supply chain disruptions and input cost volatility by hedging energy exposure where possible. Monitor for official announcements regarding Strait of Hormuz access, as restricted flows could trigger rapid, localized cost spikes across the manufacturing sector.
The takeaway
Energy costs remain a primary vulnerability for global industrial production, with price thresholds like $30 per MMBtu acting as clear markers for operational demand cuts. Operators should track regional gas trading hub updates and verify supplier contract terms to assess potential exposure to spot price volatility.
Further reading
For additional analysis on global energy markets, visit the Oil and Gas section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive.
Live Poll
Do you expect energy costs in your area to rise over the coming months?
