Bank of America Raised Brent Oil Price Forecasts
Higher energy cost expectations will force global operators to reassess logistics budgets and fuel-linked overhead.
Updated on Sept. 22, 2026 in Oil and Gas
Live Poll
Do you expect higher energy prices to significantly strain your household budget in the coming year?
Bank of America analysts have increased their Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2026 from $83 to $95 per barrel. The revised outlook reflects persistent supply chain disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and elevated global energy demand linked to AI infrastructure investments.
Why it matters
Operators should monitor energy costs as sustained supply volatility threatens to elevate fuel prices beyond current projections. While the U.S. market remains relatively insulated as a major producer, international businesses face increased margin pressure from higher transportation expenses.
Bank of America raised its second-half 2026 Brent crude forecast to $95 per barrel, an increase from its prior $83 estimate. Analysts suggest that prices could climb to $150 per barrel if supply constraints persist, a level they believe is necessary to curb global oil demand.
The players
Bank of America
A global financial services institution providing research, investment banking, and capital market analysis.
Saudi Arabia
A major global oil exporter that recently resumed operations at the critical East-West Pipeline.
The details
The current market environment is characterized by backwardation, where near-term contracts trade at a premium to future deliveries, signaling tight supply. Shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from a daily average of 125 commercial vessels to as few as two, forcing reliance on alternative infrastructure like Saudi Arabia's restarted East-West Pipeline. These logistics shifts are compounded by high energy demand for AI data center infrastructure.
Timeline
September 20, 2026: Ten vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz.
September 21, 2026: Two vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz.
September 22, 2026: Brent crude slipped below $100 per barrel.
H2 2026: Bank of America raised its Brent crude price forecast.
Spring 2027: Potential duration of continued supply disruptions.
Market Landscape
This forecast update aligns with the heightened energy demand patterns observed since the 2026 global energy surge linked to AI data center infrastructure. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical shipping constraints, which now serve as the primary catalyst for price volatility.
Operators should review fuel-linked logistics surcharges and adjust 2027 operating budgets to account for a $95 baseline. Consult with your accounting team to hedge energy-intensive expenses if your business relies heavily on international transport or shipping.
The takeaway
The sustained divergence between reduced maritime throughput and high tech-sector power consumption makes volatile energy prices a structural business risk. Keep close watch on the futures curve for signs that backwardation is deepening, which serves as a primary signal for supply stress.
Further reading
For more on the current volatility impacting energy markets, visit Oil and Gas.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Benzinga.
Live Poll
Do you expect higher energy prices to significantly strain your household budget in the coming year?
