El Niño Conditions Have Strained South Asian Corn Supplies
Feed-heavy businesses should prepare for tighter regional corn supplies as El Niño shifts harvest outcomes in 2027.
Updated on Oct. 4, 2026 in Agriculture
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El Niño weather patterns have begun disrupting feed raw material harvests across South Asia, leading to reduced planting areas and lower export projections for the coming season. These conditions have intensified drought risks for major producers, threatening to tighten availability for regional importers.
Why it matters
Operators in the feed and agricultural sectors face significant supply risks as erratic rainfall disrupts the Southwest Monsoon. The shift toward alternative crops by farmers, coupled with rising input costs, is tightening margins and reducing the export capacity of key regional suppliers.
Sri Lankan corn cultivation totaled 10,000 hectares during the 2026 Yala season, failing to reach the typical 15,000-hectare mark. Meanwhile, Pakistan corn exports are forecast to shrink by 50% to 200,000 tons in the 2026/27 season, down from the prior period.
The players
World Meteorological Department
An international agency that monitors global climate patterns and issues forecasts impacting commodity supply chains.
The details
El Niño conditions have fundamentally altered rainfall distribution across South Asia, forcing farmers to pivot from corn to less water-intensive oilseeds to mitigate drought risks. High fertilizer costs have further constrained acreage in markets like Sri Lanka, limiting the supply available for regional trade. This shift restricts regional exports and increases the pressure on localized feed inventories as major suppliers navigate lower harvest forecasts for 2027.
Timeline
May 2026 marked the start of heightened El Niño conditions.
June-September 2026 spanned the critical Southwest Monsoon period in India.
October/November 2026 represented the peak corn harvest period in Sri Lanka.
Early 2027 is the current window where El Niño conditions are expected to persist.
Market Landscape
This disruption follows the established pattern where extreme climate events override the regional agricultural output trends observed during the previous record-production cycle. It signals a departure from the 2025/26 growth phase, forcing a recalibration of supply chain expectations across South Asian trade routes.
Operators reliant on South Asian corn imports should audit current supplier contracts for force majeure clauses and evaluate the cost implications of shifting to alternate supply regions. Monitoring export volume data through early 2027 is essential to gauge the extent of the feed shortage.
The takeaway
The combination of high fertilizer costs and unpredictable monsoon rainfall is forcing a contraction in regional corn availability. Business leaders should track official monsoon rainfall updates throughout the next quarter to inform procurement adjustments.
Further reading
For more on market shifts, see our Agriculture analysis.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Asian Agribiz.
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