Middle East Oil Exports Rose Above Pre-War Levels
Increased export volumes have pushed UAE retail fuel prices above Dh4 per litre as transit risks persist.
Updated on Oct. 6, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Middle East crude oil exports surged to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day in late September 2026, exceeding the 18 million barrel daily average seen between March 2025 and February 2026. This rise in throughput comes as regional producers seek to maintain global energy flows despite ongoing security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters
The jump in export volume reflects a strategic push to bypass regional transit disruptions, even as security risks remain elevated following an October 2026 attack on a crude carrier. Operators face immediate margin pressure from these high energy costs, as regional retail prices have climbed above Dh4 per litre.
Middle East exports reached up to 22.5 million barrels per day in late September 2026 compared to an 18 million average in the prior year. Consequently, UAE retail fuel prices for October 2026 hit Dh4.40 for Super 98, Dh4.28 for Special 95, and Dh4.21 for E-Plus 91.
The players
UAE Fuel Price Committee
The government body responsible for adjusting retail fuel costs in line with global market benchmarks.
The details
Producers are navigating increased security risks by routing shipments through the East-West pipeline and utilizing ship-to-ship transfers to bypass transit bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz. While these logistical adjustments have stabilized flows, the regional cost of refined fuel remains high due to the deregulation of UAE retail pricing. Market participants are now monitoring October global oil pricing, which stood at $100.60 per barrel for Brent and $89.71 for WTI on October 6, for potential relief in November.
Timeline
Average export volumes were measured from March 2025 through February 2026.
Exports exceeded pre-war levels between September 24 and 29, 2026.
A Kuwaiti crude carrier was targeted in an attack on October 1, 2026.
UAE retail fuel prices were officially set for October 2026.
Potential fuel price relief for consumers is anticipated in November 2026.
Market Landscape
Current retail fuel costs in the UAE reflect the market-based pricing mechanism established under the 2015 fuel price deregulation. This development follows a period of heightened maritime security concerns that have forced producers to optimize traditional transit routes.
Businesses reliant on logistics and fuel should monitor global Brent and WTI fluctuations to anticipate potential price adjustments for November. Review your fuel surcharge pass-through policies to ensure they keep pace with regional pricing changes.
The takeaway
Record-high export volumes highlight the resilience of energy infrastructure, but the regional price impact remains significant. Operators should track daily Brent pricing as an indicator for upcoming changes in local energy costs.
What happens next
UAE fuel prices for November 2026 will be determined based on global oil price trends observed throughout October.
Further reading
For more on industry benchmarks, visit our Oil and Gas section.
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