Marine Fuel Sales Expected to Decline Through 2026
International shippers are rerouting vessels, leading to lower volume forecasts for major fuel suppliers.
Updated on Oct. 15, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Bunker Holding projects a decline in total marine fuel sales for 2026 as Middle East conflict and vessel rerouting disrupt global maritime trade. The world's largest marine fuel seller anticipates volumes will fall below the 24 million tonnes recorded in 2025.
Why it matters
High fuel prices and waterway blockades have forced shippers to prioritize slow steaming and volume reduction to manage costs. These operational pressures are reshaping global demand patterns as traffic moves away from the Red Sea toward longer routes.
Bunker Holding expects 2026 sales to fall below 2025's annual volume of 24 million tonnes. The projection follows decreased fuel oil exports from the Middle East and significant shifts in global shipping traffic.
The players
Bunker Holding
The world's largest marine fuel seller by volume, operating a network that includes Dan-Bunkering, Bunker One, and KPI OceanConnect.
The details
Shippers are increasingly bypassing the Red Sea and Suez Canal, opting instead to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. This change in navigation, combined with elevated bunker prices, has encouraged customers to adopt slow steaming to curb fuel consumption. While trade volume has dropped in traditional lanes, demand has seen a compensatory increase in African bunkering hubs.
Timeline
2025: Total sales volume exceeded 24 million tonnes.
2026: Total sales volume expected to fall below 24 million tonnes.
Next decade: Projected growth in African bunker demand.
Market Landscape
This contraction in fuel demand reflects the long-term impact of maritime trade disruptions similar to the Suez Canal crisis. The shift marks a departure from traditional shipping routes as operators normalize longer transit paths.
Operators managing logistics should account for continued volatility in distillate supplies, particularly in Asian markets. Monitoring bunker price stability and fuel-efficient transit strategies remains essential while current regional trade blockades persist.
The takeaway
The sustained elevation of bunker prices is driving a permanent shift in how shipping firms forecast and consume fuel. Logistics managers should track the expansion of infrastructure in African bunkering hubs as a key signal for long-term route planning.
Further reading
For broader trends in the sector, see Oil and Gas.
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Do you expect the current volatility in global shipping fuel prices to increase your household expenses?
