Russian Gas Prices for China Lower Than Expected
The discounted pricing for Chinese importers highlights the competitive pressure Russia faces while redirecting exports.
Updated on Oct. 24, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Leaked data from the Russian Economic Development Ministry confirms that China pays $40 to $60 less per 1,000 cubic metres for Russian gas compared to supplies from Turkmenistan. This revelation surfaces as Russia intensifies efforts to redirect gas exports toward China to offset lost European market share.
Why it matters
The pricing disparity underscores the high cost of Russia's pivot to Asian markets, where it lacks the leverage it once held in Europe. For energy-dependent businesses, this shift reveals the discount necessary for Russia to secure long-term contracts in China and the potential pressure on global energy pricing formulas.
Gazprom delivered 39.4 billion cubic metres of gas to China in 2025, with projections suggesting volumes will rise to 40.5 billion cubic metres in 2026. The contract, originally signed in May 2014, currently operates under a pricing formula tied to Rotterdam gasoil and high-sulphur fuel oil quotes.
The players
Gazprom
A state-owned Russian energy giant that maintains a near-monopoly on pipeline gas exports and is currently pivoting operations to replace European market revenue.
Russian Economic Development Ministry
The national government agency responsible for drafting economic forecasts and managing trade policy, which recently leaked sensitive volume and pricing data.
The details
The pricing mechanism for Russian pipeline gas is indexed to a combination of gasoil and high-sulphur fuel oil using Rotterdam market quotes, approximately equivalent to 3.15 times the average Brent crude price over the previous three quarters. The accidental leak of an addendum to an economic forecast allowed researchers to confirm these figures by cross-referencing against existing Chinese customs data. This discount persists despite Russia seeking to increase its supply dominance, with Moscow projecting that China will account for over 60% of all Russian gas exports by 2030.
Timeline
May 2014: Power of Siberia gas contract signed.
2022-2024: Years covered by leaked pricing data.
2025: Gazprom delivered 39.4 billion cubic metres to China.
October 23, 2026: Carnegie Politika published analysis of leaked data.
2030: Russia expects China to take 60% of total gas exports.
Market Landscape
This development follows the long-term precedent set by the 2014 Power of Siberia contract, which continues to govern the primary energy corridor between Russia and China. It highlights the deepening reliance on a single major customer as Russia attempts to replace its formerly lucrative European export pipeline network.
Operators reliant on commodity inputs should monitor the divergence between European and Asian pricing benchmarks as Russia increases its export share. Global energy procurement strategies may need adjustment to account for the price discounts Russia is offering to lock in high-volume, long-term Asian supply deals.
The takeaway
Russia is aggressively trading price premiums for export volume to keep its gas flowing eastward, signaling a permanent change in how gas is priced across the Eurasian market. Businesses should track Gazprom's export volume reports, as these figures serve as a leading indicator for potential adjustments to global energy price formulas.
Further reading
For more on shifting international energy trade flows, visit Oil and Gas.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Intellinews.
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