Critical Mineral Shortages Demand Wider Sourcing Risk Checks
Industrial companies that buy critical minerals need to look past direct suppliers to processing and ownership to manage shortage exposure.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Business Strategy
Boston Consulting Group has published a study arguing that shortages of critical minerals should be treated as a CEO-level issue, saying industrial companies tend to underestimate the risk. The study also says Kazakhstan can strengthen its position in global critical minerals supply chains, and it is relevant to industrial companies sourcing raw materials.
Why it matters
The study says companies focus mainly on the cost of raw materials and limit risk analysis to direct suppliers, while overlooking processing and ownership structures. For operators in industrial supply chains, that narrow view may leave sourcing exposed to shortages that reach well beyond their first-tier vendors.
The BCG model projects 2040 demand for rare earth elements, graphite, copper, and lithium at 120-250% of projected supply, while the OECD says Kazakhstan could supply 21 of the 34 raw materials on the EU critical raw materials list. Around 65% of Kazakhstan's territory remains geologically underexplored, which leaves much of its potential unmeasured.
The players
Boston Consulting Group
A global management consulting firm that advises industrial and corporate clients on strategy, operations, and risk.
OECD
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, an intergovernmental body whose analysis informs trade and critical raw materials policy among member economies.
The details
BCG's analysis says companies concentrate on mineral extraction without enough attention to processing capacity and the ownership structure behind it. Shortages can therefore arise at the processing stage or through control of assets, even when extraction appears adequate. The study identifies three gaps in companies' risk assessment mechanisms, pointing to a need to map risk further down the supply chain than direct suppliers.
Timeline
- 2026-11-02
BCG's study on critical mineral shortages was published.
2040: Projected year when demand for key minerals could reach 120-250% of supply.
Market Landscape
The study places Kazakhstan's mineral potential against the EU critical raw materials list, where the OECD counts 34 materials and Kazakhstan could supply 21 of them. Industrial companies that shift sourcing toward Central Asia would be competing for access in a market where processing and ownership, not only extraction, determine who controls supply.
Procurement and supply-chain teams should map sourcing risk beyond direct suppliers to include processing capacity and ownership of the mineral sources they depend on. Finance and operations leaders may want to factor the possibility of mineral shortages into longer-term cost and supply planning.
The takeaway
Treat critical mineral supply as a board-level sourcing question, not only a purchasing one. Review supplier maps to identify where processing and ownership concentrate risk, and watch for further BCG and OECD material on critical raw materials.
Further reading
For more on how supply-chain risk fits into company strategy, see Business Strategy.
