Dollar Holds as Bitcoin Slides After Binance Theft
Importers and exporters with euro or sterling exposure, and businesses holding crypto, face near-term price swings around the midterm results.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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The dollar held steady at 101.94 against a basket of currencies ahead of the US midterm elections, while the euro traded near a 17-month low and bitcoin fell after a $6.3 billion theft from Binance attributed to North Korea-linked hackers. For operators, currency and crypto-market swings are feeding into cross-border pricing and treasury decisions.
Why it matters
Currency moves ahead of a national election reflect investor uncertainty over whether a sweeping Democratic win could reshape federal policy and spending. The Binance theft also weighed on crypto prices, as customers withdrew US$3.64 billion, or 2.1 per cent of the exchange's assets.
The dollar index sat at 101.94 and the euro at US$1.1159, near a 17-month low, while Binance has covered 95 per cent of the US$6.3 billion stolen and customers pulled US$3.64 billion, or 2.1 per cent of its assets.
The players
Binance
Binance is a global cryptocurrency exchange whose platform was breached in a US$6.3 billion theft last week.
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The FBI is the US federal agency that investigates cybercrime and has linked the Binance theft to North Korea-linked hackers.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings is a major credit rating agency whose revision of France's outlook to negative signals heightened sovereign credit risk.
Reserve Bank of Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia is the country's central bank, widely expected to raise its cash rate to 4.85 per cent on Tuesday.
The details
Traders were positioning ahead of Tuesday's US midterm elections, with Democrats widely predicted to win the House of Representatives. A Democratic sweep of Congress could complicate capital expenditure plans for data centres and AI infrastructure at the state level. Separately, Fitch revised France's outlook to negative from stable, and sterling traded at US$1.3387. The Binance theft, attributed by the FBI to North Korea-linked hackers, pushed bitcoin lower before the exchange went back online on Sunday.
Timeline
Last week: Binance suffered the US$6.3 billion theft.
Friday: Bitcoin fell to a six-week low.
Sunday: Binance went back online after the hack.
Tuesday: US midterm elections and the Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision.
Market Landscape
Fitch's negative outlook on France extends a pattern of rating agencies reassessing European sovereign fiscal positions. The Binance breach adds to a recurring pattern of large exchange thefts tied to state-linked hacking groups.
Operators with cross-border payments or treasury exposure should monitor currency volatility around the midterm results. Businesses holding crypto assets or accepting them should review custody and exchange-counterparty exposure in light of the Binance breach.
The takeaway
Treasury teams should watch the dollar and euro closely through the election outcome and the RBA decision on Tuesday. Companies that hold or transact in crypto should confirm how their platform handles counterparty theft risk.
What happens next
The Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision and the US midterm elections both fall on Tuesday, with markets watching both outcomes closely.
Further reading
For broader context on the figures moving markets this week, see Economic Indicators.
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