Heat Stress Could Cost 80 Million Full-Time Jobs
Employers in outdoor and labor-intensive sectors should plan for heat-driven productivity and staffing losses.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Employment
The International Labor Organization published multinational studies on heat stress effects on workers in Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon, the Maldives, Senegal, and Sri Lanka, presented on October 29. The studies project 80 million full-time jobs will be lost to heat stress by 2030, affecting businesses with heavy outdoor and labor-intensive employment.
Why it matters
The studies were produced to assess job and GDP losses under low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios, and heat stress is identified as one of the major threats to the textile industry. For operators in labor-intensive sectors, rising heat exposure points to pressure on productivity, staffing levels, and workplace safety obligations.
The projections are model-based estimates from ILO multinational studies rather than observed losses. Figures span the 2030 to 2060 horizon and are stated against low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios, with 2.4 billion workers worldwide currently exposed to excessive heat.
The players
International Labor Organization
A United Nations agency that sets international labor standards and produces research on employment and working conditions across member countries.
The details
The studies assessed how rising temperatures reduce labor capacity in outdoor and labor-intensive work, translating those productivity losses into full-time job equivalents and GDP impacts. Ethiopia shows the largest projected losses, with more than one million workers exposed to heat by 2040 and 5 to 6 million full-time equivalent jobs at risk by 2060 under high-emission scenarios. Countries with high levels of outdoor employment face the greatest risk, while the Maldives shows the smallest projected losses among the six studied.
Timeline
October 29, 2025: ILO presented the multinational heat stress studies.
2030: 80 million full-time jobs projected lost to heat stress.
2040: Projected job and GDP losses under low-emissions scenarios, including more than one million Ethiopian workers exposed to heat.
2060: Projected greater job losses under high-emission scenarios, ranging from 5 to 6 million full-time equivalent jobs in Ethiopia.
Market Landscape
The ILO's multinational studies extend its research on occupational conditions into quantified forecasts of job and GDP losses tied to emissions pathways. The projections place heat stress alongside other threats to labor-intensive industries such as textiles.
Operators in outdoor and labor-intensive sectors should factor heat-related productivity loss and staffing pressure into near-term planning. Reviewing workplace heat-safety practices and scheduling flexibility may be prudent steps for businesses exposed to rising temperatures.
The takeaway
Heat exposure is becoming a measurable labor cost, and the projections point to growing losses in outdoor and labor-intensive work through 2060. Operators in exposed industries should track heat-related absenteeism and productivity as an ongoing operating metric.
Further reading
For broader context on how workforce trends are shifting across industries, explore the Employment section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Modaes.
