Hayes Sees Bitcoin Weakness Until Liquidity Expands
Businesses holding crypto assets should weigh a possible near-term Bitcoin slide tied to central bank and lender balance sheets.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posted on X that Bitcoin weakness is expected until the Fed or banks start growing their balance sheets, then said he plans to sit out the market. Operators tracking crypto-linked liquidity should note the call came days after he sold about $22.28 million in crypto from Maelstrom's directional book.
Why it matters
Hayes ties Bitcoin's weakness to central bank and lender balance sheets, which expand when they buy assets or extend credit, making liquidity conditions the core variable in his view. The call matters for businesses exposed to crypto pricing because it reframes near-term price direction around money-supply signals rather than asset-specific news.
The .USDLIQ dollar liquidity index read 32.71 million on November 2, up 4.49% since January and roughly 0.6% below its October peak of 32.90 million. Hayes's directional book sold about $22.28 million in crypto days after his October 15 call urging long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The players
Arthur Hayes
Co-founder of BitMEX, a crypto derivatives exchange, and chief investment officer of the family office Maelstrom, known for macro-driven crypto calls.
The details
Hayes posted his view on X alongside a chart of the .USDLIQ index, arguing that Bitcoin will stay weak until liquidity expands. A balance sheet grows when a central bank or lender buys assets or extends more credit, so his thesis is that new money creation must precede a recovery in risk assets. The shift from a bullish October 15 call to a planned exit reflects how quickly a liquidity-driven outlook can change.
Timeline
October 15: Hayes urged traders to go long on Bitcoin and Ethereum in a call.
September: Bitcoin trailed a record global money supply of $103.66 trillion.
November 2: The .USDLIQ index stood at 32.71 million.
November 3: Hayes posted on X that Bitcoin weakness is expected until balance sheets grow.
Market Landscape
Hayes's argument ties crypto prices to the same balance-sheet mechanics that drive broader dollar liquidity, a framework that places Bitcoin's trajectory alongside central bank policy. Set against Bitcoin trailing a record $103.66 trillion global money supply in September, his position marks a departure from the bullish stance he took just weeks earlier.
Businesses holding crypto treasury positions or accepting crypto payments should factor in the possibility of a weaker near-term Bitcoin price if liquidity conditions stay tight. Finance teams should review exposure limits and consult qualified accountants before adjusting any crypto holdings.
The takeaway
Treat dollar liquidity indicators as a leading input when assessing crypto exposure, not just asset-specific headlines. Track the .USDLIQ index and central bank balance sheet data over the coming quarters, and route any position changes through a qualified financial advisor.
Further reading
For the liquidity measures behind this debate, see our coverage of Economic Indicators.
Source note: This article includes information reported by BeInCrypto.
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