Kuwait Expands as Egypt, Qatar Stay Contracting
Exporters and importers working with Gulf and North African markets face uneven demand across the region.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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Kuwait's non-oil private sector PMI rose to 52.9 in October 2026, while Egypt's held at 47.2 and Qatar's non-energy sector slipped to 46.3. The divergence matters for businesses that export to or source from Gulf and North African markets, where regional conflict continues to disrupt trade routes and supply chains.
Why it matters
Kuwait's gain reflects new export orders from neighboring customers, a sign that some regional demand is reaching firms able to supply it. Egypt and Qatar face sustained contraction, with Egypt's private sector absorbing higher import, energy and shipping costs alongside a weaker currency, which squeezes margins and pricing power.
Kuwait has now stayed above the 50-point expansion threshold for four consecutive months, while Egypt's non-oil private sector has contracted for ten straight months and Qatar's non-energy sector for eight. Regional output is projected by the World Bank to contract 2.1 percent in 2026, with Gulf Cooperation Council economies forecast to shrink 4.3 percent.
The details
Kuwait's output and new orders rose more sharply in October, supported by demand from customers in neighboring countries, and new order growth reached its fastest pace since February. In Egypt, non-oil firms raised selling prices at the quickest rate since June, as input price inflation climbed to its highest level since May. Qatar's non-energy new business fell for an 11th consecutive month, and employment there declined for the first time since July 2024.
Timeline
September 2026: Kuwait's PMI stood at 52.4 and Qatar's at 47.3, the prior-month baseline for October's readings.
October 2026: PMI readings for Kuwait, Egypt and Qatar were released.
February 2026: Kuwait's new order growth last reached its October pace.
Market Landscape
The World Bank projects output across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan to contract 2.1 percent in 2026, after regional growth of 3.3 percent in 2025. The October PMI readings show that the contraction is uneven, with Kuwait expanding while Egypt and Qatar continue to shrink.
Firms exporting to Kuwait and neighboring markets should watch order flow closely, since Kuwait's demand growth is the strongest signal in the set. Businesses in Egypt and Qatar should plan for continued cost pressure on imports, energy and shipping, and for weaker demand that may limit pricing increases.
The takeaway
Track the next monthly PMI releases for Kuwait, Egypt and Qatar to see whether Kuwait's export-driven expansion holds while Egypt and Qatar stay in contraction. Operators with regional exposure should review input-cost and shipping assumptions against the World Bank's 2.1 percent contraction forecast.
Further reading
For context on how these monthly gauges are read alongside broader growth data, see our Economic Indicators coverage.
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