Supply Chain Costs to Rise 2.7% Globally in 2027
Procurement and finance teams sourcing from India, China, the U.S., Mexico and Germany should plan for higher input costs in early 2027.
Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Inflation
Live Poll
Do you expect the prices of goods you buy to rise in 2027?
Kearney projects global supply chain costs to rise 2.7% in the first half of 2027, with an upside possibility of 6.7%. Operators sourcing across India, China, the United States, Mexico and Germany face the largest projected increases in those markets.
Why it matters
The projection comes from Kearney's Supply Chain Navigator, which weighs both current cost data and pressure building in risk indicators. Geopolitical risk is the largest driver of movement in those readings, and it ranks among executives' top three roadblocks to growth.
Kearney's Navigator projects a 2.7% global supply chain cost increase for the first half of 2027, with a 6.7% upside scenario and the Navigator's accuracy rate reported above 95% over 10 quarters. Country projections range from 3.1% in Germany to 8.3% in India, though the basis for the upside scenario is not detailed.
The players
Kearney
Kearney is a global management consulting firm that advises companies on supply chain and operations strategy.
Supply Chain Institute
The Supply Chain Institute is Kearney's internal think tank that produces the Supply Chain Navigator.
The details
The Navigator tracks two lenses: fundamentals, covering sector input costs, labor, inventory, import and export prices, gross output and consumer spending, and sentiment and risk, covering business activity, market-demand and market-cost risk, trade-credit and credit risk, inventory levels and costs, and geopolitical risk. Fundamentals show what businesses are paying today, while the risk readings signal pressure that may not yet appear in reported costs. Geopolitical risk produced the largest movement in either set of data.
Timeline
First half of 2027: projected period for the 2.7% global cost increase.
The Supply Chain Navigator was created 10 quarters ago.
Market Landscape
Kearney's Navigator separates current cost fundamentals from risk indicators that signal pressure before it reaches reported figures, a framing used to project costs for the first half of 2027. The model's geopolitical risk reading, which drives the largest movement, reflects a concern that executives already list among their top three growth roadblocks.
Procurement and finance teams should model a 2.7% global cost increase for the first half of 2027, with the 6.7% upside scenario as a stress case. Operators with exposure to India, China, the United States, Mexico or Germany should review their sourcing cost assumptions for those markets.
The takeaway
The Navigator's risk readings can signal cost pressure before it appears in reported figures, so monitoring those indicators can give procurement teams earlier warning. Operators should build the 6.7% scenario into planning and consult qualified financial advisers before making any sourcing or pricing commitments.
Further reading
For context on how cost pressures move through prices, see the Inflation section.
Live Poll
Do you expect the prices of goods you buy to rise in 2027?
