Holiday Retail Sales Projected to Top $1 Trillion
Retailers should prepare for a 4.2% increase in consumer spending compared to 2025 as the holiday season approaches.
Updated on Oct. 27, 2026 in Retail
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The National Retail Federation forecasts that U.S. holiday retail sales will surpass $1 trillion for the first time during the 2026 season. Retailers are preparing for a projected $1.013 trillion in sales during November and December, marking a 4.2% increase over the 2025 holiday period.
Why it matters
This forecast provides a critical benchmark for operators to gauge consumer demand and manage inventory levels for the upcoming peak season. The projected growth reflects expectations for sustained consumer spending during the final two months of the year.
The National Retail Federation projects $1.013 trillion in holiday retail sales for November and December 2026, a 4.2% increase compared to the $972 billion recorded in 2025. It remains unknown how specific retail segments will perform relative to these aggregate figures.
The players
National Retail Federation
The largest retail trade association in the United States, representing a broad array of companies that include department stores, specialty retailers, and grocers.
The details
The industry-wide forecast accounts for spending throughout November and December, representing the most concentrated period of consumer demand. Retailers often use these benchmarks to calibrate seasonal staffing, supply chain logistics, and promotional cadence to align with anticipated volume. This year's growth projection suggests that businesses should prepare for higher throughput than the prior year's $972 billion baseline.
Timeline
2025: Holiday retail sales reached $972 billion.
October 15, 2026: The National Retail Federation released the holiday sales forecast.
November and December 2026: The projected timeframe for $1.013 trillion in retail activity.
Market Landscape
This projection surpasses the $972 billion benchmark set during the 2025 holiday season. The forecast tracks a continued upward trend in annual holiday expenditure, signaling higher target volumes for domestic retailers.
Operators should review their inventory plans against the 4.2% growth projection to ensure adequate stock levels for the two-month peak. Staffing and procurement strategies should be finalized now to accommodate the expected $1.013 trillion in market activity.
The takeaway
The projected move toward a $1 trillion holiday season highlights the need for precise inventory management in the final months of the year. Track your own store traffic and conversion metrics against this 4.2% industry growth rate to identify if you are outperforming or lagging the national trend.
Further reading
For broader trends in consumer spending and seasonal preparation, visit the Retail section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by WV News.
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