Poverty Data Splits Midterm Economic Message
Employers planning 2027 wages should track the supplemental poverty rate of 13.1%, which sits above its 2019 and 2021 lows.
Updated on Nov. 1, 2026 in Employment
Live Poll
Do you trust the federal government's official poverty statistics to accurately show how many Americans are struggling?
President Donald Trump cited U.S. poverty figures as his closing message before the midterm elections, in a video interview with New York Post columnist Miranda Devine that Fox News previewed. Under the supplemental poverty measure, 13.1% of the U.S. population was in poverty in 2025, a figure that matters to employers and workforce planners tracking economic conditions ahead of the November 3 vote.
Why it matters
The administration is pointing to the official 2025 poverty rate, which was the lowest on record, as evidence of economic progress. The supplemental measure tells a different story, with its 2025 rate sitting above both the 2021 low of 7.7% and the 2019 pre-pandemic low of 11.7%, so operators weighing hiring and wage decisions are looking at two competing readings of the same labor market.
The supplemental poverty rate was 13.1% of the U.S. population in 2025, above the 7.7% low recorded in 2021 and the 11.7% low recorded in 2019. The official 2025 poverty rate was the lowest on record, a figure the administration has repeatedly cited.
The players
Donald Trump
President of the United States, whose administration oversees federal economic reporting and whose poverty claims are central to the midterm message.
Fox News
Cable news network that aired the sneak peek and scheduled full broadcast of the Trump interview.
Miranda Devine
New York Post columnist who conducted the video interview with Trump.
FactCheck.org
Nonprofit fact-checking project that published an analysis of poverty measures last week.
The details
Trump has said the United States has the best poverty numbers multiple times over the past month, and he chose the poverty figures for his final pre-election message. The official and supplemental measures count poverty differently, so the same year can produce a record-low headline on one measure and a rate above recent lows on the other. FactCheck.org published an analysis of these poverty measures last week, which bears on how the figures are being read.
Timeline
November 1, 2026: Fox News aired a sneak peek of the Trump interview.
November 2, 2026: The full interview with Miranda Devine was scheduled to air.
November 3, 2026: Midterm elections scheduled to take place.
2025: The year the poverty measurements cited were recorded.
Market Landscape
The official and supplemental poverty series now produce different readings for 2025, with the supplemental rate of 13.1% above its 2019 and 2021 lows. That divergence is the economic backdrop against which the administration is making its record-low argument before the midterms.
Operators should expect the poverty debate to shape the political climate around wages and labor policy in the weeks before the election. Businesses tracking consumer spending power should note that the supplemental rate, not the official record low, is the figure that differs from recent years.
The takeaway
The gap between the official and supplemental poverty series is the number to track, not either headline figure alone. Operators planning 2027 wage and hiring budgets should file the supplemental 13.1% figure alongside the official rate when assessing local labor conditions.
Further reading
For context on the labor conditions behind these poverty numbers, see more of our coverage in Employment.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Raw Story.
Live Poll
Do you trust the federal government's official poverty statistics to accurately show how many Americans are struggling?
