Economic Doubt Grows as Midterms Near
Owners planning around federal policy should weigh a possible shift in congressional control on November 3.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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NBC News polling shows President Trump with a 40 percent approval rating and 60 percent disapproval, as Democrats poll as likely to retake the House and Senate in the midterms. Voters will choose governors in 36 of the 50 states, and the economy is a central concern for operators weighing the outlook.
Why it matters
Trump's current economic approval of 26 percent compares with 68 percent in 2018, a sharp drop that signals shifting voter sentiment on the economy. Political control of Congress shapes the tax, trade, and regulatory agenda that businesses plan around, which is why operators track these numbers closely.
Trump's economic approval has fallen from 68 percent among 2018 voters to 26 percent in NBC's latest data, while the Democratic Party is at 29 percent favorable. A record $11.6 billion has been spent on political advertising this cycle, with 36 of 50 states electing governors.
The players
NBC News
A national broadcast news network whose polling and Meet the Press program shape national political coverage.
Steve Kornacki
NBC News chief data analyst who presents the network's election polling and political data analysis.
The details
NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki presented the polling on Meet the Press and compared current figures to those from Trump's first midterm in 2018. In 2018 Trump's net approval was negative but less negative than today, and nearly 70 percent of voters on the eve of that midterm said they were satisfied with the economy. Polling also shows Republicans with higher net approval than Democrats, even as Democrats are positioned to gain control of Congress.
Timeline
2018: Trump's first midterm, when economic approval and satisfaction were higher.
October 30, 2026: Record $11.6 billion in political ad spending tallied for the cycle.
November 2, 2026: Meet the Press presents the polling data one day before Election Day.
November 3, 2026: Midterm Election Day, with House, Senate, and governor races on the ballot.
Market Landscape
The 2018 midterm, when economic satisfaction was near 70 percent, serves as the benchmark against which current voter sentiment is now measured. Record campaign spending of $11.6 billion this cycle points to intense competition for control of Congress and governorships across 36 states.
Operators should watch the House and Senate outcome on November 3, since control of Congress shapes tax, trade, and regulatory policy that affects planning. Falling economic approval may also signal shifting consumer and voter sentiment that businesses factor into near-term demand forecasts.
The takeaway
Treat the November 3, 2026 midterm results as a key signal, and track whether Congress shifts toward Democratic control as polling suggests. Build the outcome into your planning for tax, trade, and regulatory changes rather than assuming the current policy environment will hold.
What happens next
Midterm Election Day falls on November 3, 2026, when House, Senate, and governor races will determine the next Congress's economic agenda.
Further reading
For broader context on how these readings fit into the national outlook, see Economic Indicators coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Independent.
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