Bitcoin Cycle Low May Be Behind It, Analyst Says
Businesses holding crypto or sensitive to borrowing costs should expect intermittent corrections as Fed policy stays restrictive.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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Moon Pursuit Capital founder Utkarsh Ahuja says Bitcoin's cycle low is behind it, and expects a gradual recovery with intermittent corrections. The view arrives as the U.S. weighs its November 3 midterm elections, third-quarter growth of 3.4%, and inflation running at 3.6% on the September personal consumption expenditures measure.
Why it matters
Operators who hold or accept crypto exposure, or who plan around borrowing costs, face a market shaped by how election results affect liquidity, interest rates and financing costs. With the Fed holding its 3.75%-4% range in October and two policymakers favoring a hike, expectations of tighter policy could pressure risk assets.
U.S. third-quarter growth came in at 3.4%, while September annual PCE inflation was 3.6%. The Fed held its rate range at 3.75%-4% in October, with two policymakers favoring an increase; the source does not establish how these figures compare with consensus forecasts.
The players
Moon Pursuit Capital
A crypto asset manager whose founder, Utkarsh Ahuja, offered the cycle-low view on Bitcoin.
Federal Reserve
The U.S. central bank that sets the federal funds rate and whose October decision to hold at 3.75%-4% shapes borrowing costs for businesses.
The details
Markets tend to read election outcomes through their effect on liquidity, interest rates and financing costs, which in turn shape how investors price risk assets. During geopolitical stress, Bitcoin may trade as a risk asset, with investors reducing exposure to raise cash. Shipping disruption or escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could also lift energy costs, adding to inflation pressure that keeps monetary policy restrictive.
Timeline
October: The Fed kept its 3.75%-4% rate range, and two policymakers favored a hike.
November 3, 2026: U.S. midterm elections.
December: A possible Fed rate hike is debated.
Market Landscape
The current debate mirrors earlier crypto cycles in which analysts tried to call bottoms from timing signals, a method the cited analysis cautions against. Bitcoin's holder-loss profile this cycle has not matched the levels seen near prior lows, which the source treats as a point of difference rather than confirmation.
Operators with crypto treasury or payment exposure should expect price swings to continue through the midterm and December Fed windows, with intermittent corrections even if the trend recovers. Borrowing plans should be stress-tested against the possibility that policy stays restrictive, and any tax or accounting treatment of digital assets should be reviewed with a qualified accountant.
The takeaway
The operating signal is that a cycle-low call does not remove near-term volatility, and rate policy remains the variable to watch. Track the December Fed decision and the November 3 midterm results against your financing and treasury plans, and have counsel or an accountant review any digital-asset exposure before acting.
What happens next
The Fed's next policy decision in December could bring another rate hike, which the source identifies as possible.
Further reading
For the official readings behind this debate, see the Economic Indicators section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by TokenPost.
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