Digital Ad Growth Lifts Local Spend Forecast to 8.6%
Local businesses and media sellers face a faster move from traditional channels toward online video and digital advertising.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Advertising
Borrell Associates raised its 2026 forecast for local digital advertising growth to 8.6%, up from 4.5%, while projecting traditional local advertising will fall 3.8% that year. The shift matters most to businesses that buy or sell local ads, as digital continues to take share from print, broadcast and other legacy channels.
Why it matters
Digital already accounted for roughly 71% of local advertising in 2025, and the upgraded forecast signals that the move away from traditional media is accelerating rather than leveling off. For local businesses, that changes where ad budgets are most efficiently spent and which media sellers are gaining or losing ground.
Borrell now expects local digital advertising to grow 8.6% in 2026, nearly double its earlier 4.5% estimate, and 6.7% in 2027 versus 4.3% previously. Digital is projected to reach about 75% of local ad spending by the end of 2027 and about 80% by 2030, while total US local advertising is forecast at $155.6 billion in 2027.
The players
Borrell Associates
Borrell Associates is a research and consulting firm that tracks and forecasts local advertising markets across the United States.
The details
The forecast rests on research covering 101 business categories across 3,143 US counties. Online video is identified as the fastest-growing local advertising category, with 13.5% growth projected for 2026. Traditional media companies are expected to earn more than $18 billion in digital ad revenue in 2026, which Borrell puts at 16% of the total digital ad market, showing legacy sellers are building digital businesses even as their core channels shrink.
Timeline
February 2026: Borrell's RAB Digital Benchmarking Report was released.
2026: Local digital growth forecast at 8.6% as traditional local advertising declines 3.8%.
2027: Digital growth projected at 6.7%, with total local ad market at $155.6 billion.
2030: Digital projected to reach about 80% of local advertising.
November 11, 2026: Borrell presents its findings in a free webinar at 11 a.m. ET.
Market Landscape
The upgraded forecast extends Borrell's long-running tracking of digital's rising share of local advertising, now projected to reach about 80% of the market by 2030. Traditional media companies are simultaneously building digital revenue, with more than $18 billion expected in 2026, which places them as both declining-channel sellers and digital competitors.
Operators who buy local advertising should reexamine budget allocations, since digital's growing share suggests shifting spend toward online video and digital channels may be warranted. Businesses that sell or buy traditional local media should factor the projected 3.8% decline in 2026 into planning, and should consult qualified marketing and financial advisors before making material budget changes.
The takeaway
The key operating insight is that local advertising budgets are moving decisively toward digital, with online video the fastest-growing category. Operators should watch the November 11, 2026 Borrell webinar for updated figures before finalizing next year's local ad plans.
What happens next
Borrell will present its findings in a free webinar on November 11, 2026, at 11 a.m. ET.
Further reading
For broader context on how these shifts play out across channels, see Advertising coverage on We are Main Street.
