US Copper Supply Gap Persists Past 2030

Manufacturers relying on copper inputs should plan for import dependence while new domestic capacity takes years to arrive.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Manufacturing

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Should the U.S. spend more public money to secure domestic copper and critical minerals supply?

JPMorgan has raised its estimate of potential new US copper supply to about 1.3 million tonnes a year, as the country's mined output has fallen sharply over three decades. The shift matters for US manufacturers and buyers of copper, since most new domestic capacity is not expected until after 2030.

Why it matters

US mined copper output has dropped about 50% over 30 years to roughly 1 million tonnes, and the country's share of global mined copper has fallen from about 50% in 1900 to below 5%. Renewed interest in securing critical minerals supply is reviving investment, but manufacturers relying on domestic copper face a deficit in the near term.

US mined copper output has fallen about 50% over 30 years, to roughly 1 million tonnes, against a primary supply deficit of about 1 million tonnes. US capital intensity runs about $28,000 per annual tonne, compared with a global average of about $26,000.

The players

JPMorgan

A global investment bank whose research arm publishes sector analysis and ratings on mining companies.

Freeport-McMoRan

A large copper and gold producer with major US mining operations and significant brownfield expansion potential.

Rio Tinto

A global mining group and majority partner in the Resolution copper joint venture.

BHP

One of the world's largest mining companies and minority partner in the Resolution copper joint venture.

The details

JPMorgan's estimate builds on brownfield growth at existing sites, such as Freeport-McMoRan's potential for more than 250,000 tonnes a year of additional output, along with in-situ leaching and the restarting of older mines. Regulatory reforms such as the FAST-41 legislation are accelerating projects that previously faced lengthy permitting processes. The Resolution greenfield joint venture between Rio Tinto (55%) and BHP (45%) accounts for nearly half the US copper project pipeline, though its investment decision is not expected before 2030.

Over the past 30 years, US mined copper output fell about 50%.
In 1900, the US held about 50% of global mined copper output.
Most new US copper capacity is expected to come online only after 2030.
A final investment decision on the Resolution project is not expected before 2030.

Market Landscape

The projected additions follow a three-decade decline in US mined copper, which has fallen from about 50% of global output in 1900 to below 5% today. The US ranks third globally for potential supply additions, behind Chile and Argentina.

Manufacturers that depend on copper inputs should track supplier pricing and availability, since the domestic deficit is unlikely to close before 2030. Procurement teams may want to plan around import dependence for the medium term.

The takeaway

The US copper gap is structural, and new domestic capacity will not offset it until after 2030. Operators should monitor the Resolution project's investment decision and build copper sourcing contingencies into their planning now.