Gas Could Fall to $3.65 as Oil Losses Hit
Fleet operators and fuel-dependent businesses should model lower diesel costs if the projected drop reaches pumps.
Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan projects the U.S. national average gas price could fall to $3.65 per gallon in the weeks ahead, following heavy losses in the oil market after Republican midterm setbacks. Operators in fuel-dependent sectors should watch pump and diesel pricing as those oil losses pass through.
Why it matters
De Haan said political pressure to act on the midterm results is pushing oil prices down, and those losses are expected to reach pumps starting Thursday and Friday. The move comes amid the Iran war, with Trump acknowledging that steep gas prices played a role in the election outcome.
AAA recorded national average gas at $4.1003/gallon and diesel at $6.2564/gallon on Wednesday, with diesel down from $6.2875/gallon. De Haan projects gas could fall to $3.65/gallon and diesel to $5.50/gallon in the weeks ahead.
The players
GasBuddy
A fuel price tracking and consumer savings platform whose analysts publish regular retail gasoline and diesel forecasts.
AAA
A national motorist association that publishes daily average retail gasoline and diesel price data across the United States.
The details
Oil market losses following the midterm results are expected to flow through to retail fuel prices, with the first pass-through anticipated on Thursday and Friday. De Haan attributes the downward pressure on crude to political pressure to act on the voting results. For operators, fuel is a direct input cost, so a pump-price decline of the magnitude projected would reduce transportation and operating expenses for businesses that buy gasoline and diesel.
Timeline
Tuesday: Republicans suffered setbacks in the midterm elections.
Wednesday, November 4, 2026: Gas averaged $4.1003/gallon and diesel $6.2564/gallon.
Thursday, November 5, 2026: Gas prices fell further and oil losses began passing to pumps.
Friday, November 6, 2026: Oil market losses expected to reach pumps.
Market Landscape
The projected decline follows a pattern in which retail pump prices track crude oil moves with a lag, as seen in GasBuddy's ongoing national forecasts. The forecast ties the price outlook to the Iran war and to the political fallout from the midterm elections.
Operators whose businesses depend on gasoline or diesel should model the projected declines, since fuel is a direct operating cost that would fall if pump prices reach the forecast levels. Fleet managers should confirm fuel purchasing and contract terms with their qualified accountant or counsel before adjusting budgets.
The takeaway
Track the weekly AAA national average against the $4.1003/gallon baseline to see whether pass-through from oil losses reaches pumps as forecast. Fleet and logistics operators should build a fuel-cost scenario at the projected $3.65 gasoline and $5.50 diesel levels while treating those figures as forecasts, not guarantees.
Further reading
For more on how crude oil moves reach the pump, explore the Oil and Gas section.
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