Vietnam Tops US Goods Surplus as Tariffs Persist

Importers sourcing from Vietnam should plan for a 12.5% tariff and possible additional duties from pending US probes.

Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in International Trade

Bold isometric editorial illustration of plain steel shipping containers stacked on a quay in muted oxblood, teal, and mustard, suggesting the cargo trade flows behind the tariff story. — The United States ran a nearly $190 billion goods trade surplus with Vietnam in the first nine months of the year, which now exceeds China's and Mexico's, as a 12.5% tariff remains in place. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Vietnam has overtaken China and Mexico as the country with the largest goods trade surplus with the United States, which reached nearly $190 billion in the first nine months of the year. Businesses expect no near-term change in the US trade stance toward Vietnam, which faces a general 12.5% tariff imposed in July.

Why it matters

The surplus figure is about 47% higher than a year earlier and complicates ongoing negotiations for a trade deal that have run for more than a year. For importers and manufacturers sourcing from Vietnam, the combination of a standing tariff and possible further duties makes near-term sourcing costs harder to forecast.

Vietnam's surplus with the US is the largest of any country, ahead of China at roughly $130 billion, down from nearly $163 billion a year earlier. The general tariff on Vietnamese goods stands at 12.5%, which partly replaced 20% duties the Supreme Court struck down.

The players

Trump administration

The US executive branch that imposed the 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese goods and sets federal trade policy affecting importers.

Vietnam Foreign Ministry

The Vietnamese government body that is leading trade negotiations with Washington and has launched campaigns against illegal transshipment.

The details

The 12.5% tariff was imposed in July over alleged failures to prevent imports of products made with forced labour, and it partly replaced earlier duties after the Supreme Court struck those down. US White House officials have repeatedly accused Vietnam of serving as a transshipment hub for Chinese exports, and Vietnam has launched campaigns against illegal transshipment and other violations flagged by Washington. Two other US probes could result in additional duties on Vietnam as early as November 2026.

July: the Trump administration imposed the 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese goods.
First nine months of the year: Vietnam's surplus with the US reached nearly $190 billion.
Thursday, November 5, 2026: the Vietnam Foreign Ministry said trade talks continued.
As early as November 2026: two other probes could result in additional US duties.

Market Landscape

The surplus shift places Vietnam ahead of China and Mexico, reversing the pattern in which China had long held the largest US goods surplus. The continuing trade negotiations and the transshipment accusations tie Vietnam's position to broader US scrutiny of Chinese supply chains routed through third countries.

Importers sourcing from Vietnam should model a 12.5% tariff in current cost projections and treat possible additional duties from the two pending probes as a risk to build into near-term planning. Procurement teams may want to review supplier origin documentation with qualified customs counsel given the transshipment scrutiny.

The takeaway

Operators with Vietnamese supply chains should watch for the outcome of the two pending US probes, which could add duties as early as November 2026. Documenting product origin and supplier routing now may reduce exposure if transshipment rules tighten.

What happens next

Two other US probes could result in additional duties on Vietnam as early as November 2026, and trade talks between Washington and Hanoi remain ongoing.