Tax Credit Income Lifts Ethanol and RNG Revenue

Ethanol and renewable natural gas producers should separate one-time Section 45Z true-ups from recurring revenue when reading results.

Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Corporate Finance

Isometric editorial illustration of a single fermentation tank and processing building on flat farmland in muted oxblood, teal, and mustard tones. — Aemetis reported $88.2 million in third-quarter 2026 revenue, up 49%, with $24.7 million coming from Section 45Z tax credit income, including an $11 million true-up. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Aemetis reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $88.2 million, a 49% increase from the prior-year quarter, driven by higher renewable natural gas and ethanol sales and $24.7 million in Section 45Z tax credit income. The results were released November 5, 2026, and bear on operators in California's ethanol and dairy renewable natural gas sectors.

Why it matters

The revenue gain was supported in part by Section 45Z credit income, including an approximately $11 million cumulative true-up for dairy RNG dispensed in the first and second quarters of 2026, so credit recognition timing shapes reported results. Operators should note that a September 8, 2026 model update lowered dairy RNG carbon intensity scores, a change that affects how credit value is calculated.

Aemetis booked $88.2 million in third quarter 2026 revenue, up 49% from $59.2 million a year earlier, with $24.7 million of that tied to Section 45Z credit income. Ethanol volume rose 6% to 15.6 million gallons, and the RNG segment sold 158,200 MMBtu.

The players

Aemetis, Inc.

Aemetis is a renewable fuels company that operates a corn ethanol plant in Keyes, California, and produces renewable natural gas and biodiesel.

The details

The company recognized Section 45Z credit income as revenue, including an approximately $11 million cumulative true-up covering RNG dispensed in the first and second quarters of 2026. In October 2026 Aemetis completed two new methane capture digesters, and it installed two of three planned corn oil separation units at its Keyes plant. Management projects the mechanical vapor recompression system will cut natural gas use at Keyes by 80%, and the corn oil units are expected to roughly double corn oil production versus the first quarter 2026 rate.

July 2026: Tender allocations awarded to India Oil Marketing Companies in late July.
September 8, 2026: A 45ZCF-GREET model update decreased dairy RNG carbon intensity scores.
October 2026: Two new methane capture digesters were completed.
November 5, 2026: Aemetis released third quarter results.
End of 2026: The third corn oil separation unit is expected to begin operations.

Market Landscape

Section 45Z clean fuel production credits are now a material line item in the reported revenue of low-carbon ethanol and RNG producers such as Aemetis. The September 2026 GREET model update changing dairy RNG carbon intensity scores shows that credit value depends on methodology updates that can shift quarter to quarter.

Operators in ethanol and RNG should factor Section 45Z credit timing into cash-flow forecasts, since true-ups can lift a single quarter's revenue. Finance teams should track carbon intensity model updates, because changes like the September 2026 GREET revision alter the value of credits.

The takeaway

Credit income can make a quarter look stronger than underlying operations, so operators should separate one-time true-ups from recurring revenue when reading results. Track the third corn oil separation unit's startup and any further GREET model changes, which both bear on future credit value.