Wall Street Bonuses Set to Surge in 2026
Trading and underwriting bankers gain most, while private credit pay stalls, shaping compensation budgets across New York's financial firms.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Corporate Finance
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Johnson Associates projects Wall Street bonuses for 2026 to rise significantly over 2025, with equity sales, trading and underwriting investment bankers potentially seeing increases of 20 to 30% or more. The firm's third-quarter projections matter for New York-based financial firms and the state and city budgets that depend on bonus payouts.
Why it matters
Traders benefit when markets move sharply, and a surge in volatility contributed to the gains. The projections reflect a third consecutive year of bonuses significantly above the prior year, a trend that shapes compensation planning across the financial sector.
Johnson Associates projects equity, trading and underwriting bankers could see bonus increases of 20 to 30% or more over 2025. Private equity bonuses could range from zero to 7.5% growth, while private credit bonuses could be flat or fall by as much as 7.5%.
The players
Johnson Associates
A compensation consulting firm that has produced Wall Street bonus projections for 25 years, drawing on public filings and client discussions.
Alan Johnson
Managing director of Johnson Associates, whose firm's annual projections are a closely watched benchmark for financial-sector pay.
The details
Johnson Associates, a compensation consulting firm that has produced bonus projections for 25 years, builds its estimates from public filings and conversations with clients. The projections show the strongest gains in trading and capital markets, where volatility drives revenue, while private credit faces pressure after rapid expansion, a large inflow of capital and some questionable loans. Alan Johnson, managing director of the firm, frames the 2026 results as the third straight year of bonuses well above the year before.
Timeline
2025: baseline year for comparing 2026 bonus projections
Third quarter 2026: Johnson Associates released its bonus projections
2027: bonuses may be flat to slightly down
Market Landscape
The projections continue a pattern in Johnson Associates' 25-year series in which trading and capital-markets pay tracks market volatility. Private credit's divergence from equity and trading reflects the sector's rapid expansion and recent credit quality concerns.
Operators in New York's financial sector should factor in higher compensation costs for trading and capital-markets staff in 2026, while planning for flat or lower bonus pools in 2027. Finance teams should review headcount and compensation budgets, as AI-driven job cuts are expected to accelerate over the next couple of years.
The takeaway
Compensation planning for financial firms in New York should account for sharp swings between trading and private credit pay. Track the 2027 bonus outlook and AI-related staffing changes, and consult qualified accountants on how these shifts affect budget and tax planning.
What happens next
Bonus outcomes for 2026 will be finalized in early 2027, when firms settle year-end compensation.
Further reading
For more on how financial firms set pay and manage costs, explore Corporate Finance coverage.
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