Texas Pecan Crop Grows, but Quality and Costs Pinch
Growers and buyers of Texas pecans face a bigger harvest but thinner margins from disease losses and higher input costs.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Agriculture
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Texas pecan growers are heading into harvest with a larger crop than last year, with an October forecast putting output at 44.5 million pounds versus 41.6 million last year. Disease and pest pressure, however, have reduced kernel quality, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs are squeezing grower margins.
Why it matters
A wetter spring raised reports of downy spot and powdery mildew in Texas orchards, and pecan nut casebearer pressure ran above normal this season. Higher input costs and extra spraying mean a bigger crop does not automatically translate into better margins for growers.
The October forecast puts Texas output at 44.5 million pounds, up from 41.6 million last year and 39 million in September, while Georgia is forecast slightly lower at 110 million pounds versus 111.5 million. The U.S. total is forecast at 301.3 million pounds, up from roughly 284 million the year before.
The players
Monte Nesbitt
Texas pecan industry estimator whose September output estimate of 39 million pounds set an early benchmark for the state's crop.
The details
Pecan orchards are harvested with shakers rather than by workers climbing trees or picking by hand, and growers roll and irrigate tilled orchard floors to pack them into a flat, hard crust first. Excess water can crack that crust, and pecans that slip into the cracks stay there after harvest, which adds to field losses. Disease and insect pressure matter separately because pecan kernels can be shriveled or malformed inside normal-looking shells, and a good kernel carries roughly 73% to 75% oil, so quality losses cut into value even when pound counts hold.
Timeline
Late March: pecan trees budded this season.
August into September: trees demand the most water during kernel-fill stage.
September: Monte Nesbitt estimated Texas output at 39 million pounds.
October: production forecast raised Texas output to 44.5 million pounds.
Early 2026: some 2025-crop spring pecan lots neared $3 a pound.
Market Landscape
Texas output is forecast to rise against a 2025 crop whose spring lots topped $2 a pound and neared $3 a pound by early 2026. Growers are weighing that price history against a larger but blemish-prone harvest and higher fuel and fertilizer costs.
Pecan growers should factor in higher fuel, fertilizer, and extra spraying costs against a larger pound count, since quality losses from disease and pests can erode margins even as volume rises. Buyers and marketers should watch early harvests out of Georgia, Louisiana, and East Texas for pricing signals that will set the rest of the season.
The takeaway
A bigger Texas crop does not guarantee stronger margins when kernel quality and input costs move the other way. Operators should track early-season pricing from Georgia, Louisiana, and East Texas and compare it against their own spraying and fuel expenses before committing to sales terms.
Further reading
For more on how crop yields and input costs shape farm economics, see the Agriculture coverage area.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Daily Journal.
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