Texas Heating Costs Projected to Rise 19% This Winter

Texas operators with heating-intensive facilities should plan for a seasonal increase starting in October 2026.

Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Utilities

Texas Heating Costs Projected to Rise 19% This Winter

Live Poll

Do you expect your household's heating costs to rise this winter?

Power Choice Texas projects Texas households will pay $428.27 in heating costs for the October 2026 through March 2027 season, about $69.40 more than the prior season. The forecast, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data, puts Texas about 33.8% below the national average for utility-heating customers.

Why it matters

The projection is a forecast, not a billing outcome, and it is built on federal energy-demand and price estimates that can shift before the season begins. For Texas businesses that rely on heating-intensive operations, a roughly 19% increase over the prior season is a planning input for energy budgets.

Texas's projected $428.27 seasonal heating total is $69.40 above the prior season's $358.87 and 33.8% below the $646.80 national average. The projected Texas monthly average is $71.38 across the six-month season.

The players

Power Choice Texas

A Texas retail electricity comparison service that publishes energy cost analyses and household price estimates for the state's electricity market.

U.S. Energy Information Administration

The federal statistical agency that publishes the energy consumption, price, and projection data used to build regional heating-cost estimates.

The details

Power Choice Texas calculated the prior-season baseline from U.S. Energy Information Administration data for October 2025 through March 2026, then applied federal projections to account for expected shifts in energy demand and prices. The result is a seasonal estimate for Texas households and a comparison against the national average. Texas ranks sixth-lowest among contiguous states, behind Arizona at $256.23 and Florida at $259.24 in the lower range. The source does not specify how these household estimates translate to commercial or industrial heating accounts.

October 2025 through March 2026: prior heating season used as the baseline for comparison.
October 2026 through March 2027: projected heating season the forecast covers.
October 1, 2026: start of the projected heating season, about 25 days from the date of this report.

Market Landscape

The Texas estimate is a retail-electricity comparison firm's application of federal EIA projections, not an independent measurement of the market. Its placement well below the national average reflects the state's relatively low projected heating burden in this forecast.

Texas operators with heating-intensive facilities should build the projected 19% increase into the upcoming season's energy budget. Procurement and finance teams should review current utility contract terms before October to understand exposure to seasonal price changes.

The takeaway

The projected 19% year-over-year increase is the operator-level signal to watch, and it is still a forecast that can move with federal price assumptions. Review your current utility contract terms and track monthly billings against the $71.38 Texas monthly average once the season begins.