Oil Demand Seen Peaking Between 2035 and 2040
Oil and gas operators should plan volumes and investment around a demand plateau as electric vehicle sales surge.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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French energy major TotalEnergies projects that global oil demand will rise and plateau during the 2030s, peaking between 2035 and 2040. The shift follows a sharp acceleration of low-carbon technology and an energy-market crisis triggered by the US-Israeli war with Iran, which matters for oil and gas operators planning volumes beyond the next decade.
Why it matters
The revised outlook reflects faster electric vehicle adoption in Asia, Latin America, and Europe and rising biofuel blending mandates, which are reshaping consumption patterns. Last year's forecast had oil demand climbing until 2040 before a gradual decline, so the peak is now projected roughly a decade sooner in the most aggressive scenarios.
TotalEnergies now places the global oil demand peak in a 2035-2040 window, against a prior forecast that had demand rising until 2040. The acceleration of low-carbon technology between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026 is the period the company cites for the revised outlook.
The players
TotalEnergies
A major French integrated oil and gas company with operations spanning upstream production, refining, and power generation and marketing.
The details
Electric vehicle sales have grown sharply in Asia, Latin America, and Europe, displacing gasoline and diesel demand in those markets. Rising biofuel blending requirements are also reducing the volume of conventional petroleum products needed. Together these shifts are expected to flatten and then reverse oil consumption, and TotalEnergies says demand could fall faster if electric vehicle adoption keeps accelerating.
Timeline
Q2 2025 to Q2 2026: low-carbon technology accelerates sharply.
2035-2040: projected window for global oil demand to peak.
Market Landscape
TotalEnergies' revised outlook shifts its earlier forecast, which projected oil demand rising until 2040 before a gradual decline. The change places the company's expectations in line with the faster electrification trend now visible across major regional markets.
Oil and gas operators should factor a earlier demand peak into medium-term production planning, capital allocation, and contract terms with buyers. Firms exposed to gasoline and diesel volumes in Asia, Latin America, and Europe should model slower growth and possible decline in those markets.
The takeaway
Operators should treat the 2035-2040 window as a planning horizon for conventional fuel volumes and stress-test投资 and contracts against faster electric vehicle uptake. Track subsequent TotalEnergies and sector forecast revisions to see whether the projected peak moves earlier or later.
Further reading
For broader context on how these shifts are affecting producers, see the Oil and Gas section.
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