Europe Spending Growth Slows as Web Traffic Surges
Consumer brands selling into Europe face a slowing spending base even as online engagement accelerates, a gap to plan around.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Economic Indicators
UBS kept its buy rating on On Holding ahead of the athletic footwear maker's third-quarter results, arguing the report will offer limited upside. For operators tracking consumer brands, the note points to continued growth in online demand even as European spending momentum slows.
Why it matters
UBS's channel checks show global website visits up 56% year over year in the third quarter, accelerating from 48% in the second quarter, which suggests demand is still building through owned digital channels. At the same time, UBS Evidence Lab's European transaction monitor shows EU spending growth slowing to 8% from 44%, a gap that makes regional sales mix a key variable for brands selling into Europe.
UBS's channel checks show On Holding's global website visits up 56% year over year in the third quarter, versus 48% in the second quarter. UBS's European transaction monitor shows EU spending growth slowing to 8% from 44%, and the company projected 17% third-quarter sales growth excluding FX at its September 22 analyst day.
The players
UBS
Swiss global wealth manager and investment bank whose research division publishes equity ratings and sector analysis used by institutional investors worldwide.
On Holding
Swiss athletic footwear and apparel brand known for its performance running shoes, selling through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels across global markets.
The details
Website visit growth is used here as an early indicator of consumer interest, since it captures traffic before it converts into reported sales. UBS also tracks transaction-level spending in the EU, and the sharp drop in that growth rate signals that consumer spending momentum in Europe has cooled considerably. Because options markets priced in an 8.9% share move on the report while the historical average earnings-day move is 10.4%, investors are weighing the results against a wide range of possible reactions.
Timeline
September 22, 2025: On Holding projected third-quarter sales growth of 17% excluding FX at its analyst day.
Q3 2026: Global website visits rose 56% year over year.
November 4, 2026: UBS maintained its buy rating ahead of the third-quarter results.
Market Landscape
UBS Evidence Lab's European transaction monitor shows EU spending growth slowing to 8% from 44%, a sharp break in the trend. On Holding's global website visit growth of 56% in the third quarter, up from 48% in the second, indicates the brand's digital demand is outpacing the broader European spending picture.
Brands selling through both direct-to-consumer and wholesale should watch whether digital traffic gains convert into sales as European spending growth slows. Operators in Europe should factor the sharp deceleration in EU transaction growth into demand planning and inventory decisions for the coming quarters.
The takeaway
The gap between strong online traffic growth and a sharply slower European spending pace is the signal to monitor. Operators should track whether digital engagement translates into regional sales in their own channel data before committing to inventory or hiring based on either trend.
What happens next
On Holding is scheduled to report its third-quarter results, the event UBS's buy rating and limited-upside view are framed around.
Further reading
Track the consumer demand signals behind this report in our Economic Indicators coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Proactiveinvestors NA.
