Circle Earnings Test USDC Growth Ahead of Report

Businesses using USDC for payments or treasury should watch whether reserve income and circulation hold up in Wednesday's report.

Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Public Companies

Circle Earnings Test USDC Growth Ahead of Report

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Circle Internet Group releases quarterly earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday, after missing second-quarter forecasts following three straight quarters of beats. Operators tracking stablecoin issuers and fintech payments should watch the report for how reserve income and USDC circulation are holding up.

Why it matters

Circle earns most of its revenue from interest on reserves backing its USDC stablecoin, so its results track both rate conditions and how much USDC is in circulation. Analysts are split on whether AI personal assistant agents could erode that revenue base over the medium term, which is why the report is drawing attention now.

Circle is expected to post $791.2 million in third-quarter revenue, up 7% from a year earlier and 12.8% from the second quarter. USDC in circulation rose modestly to $74.58 billion over the same period, according to DeFiLlama.

The players

Circle Internet Group

Circle Internet Group is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, earning revenue mainly from interest on the reserves that back it.

Mizuho

Mizuho is a Japanese global financial group whose equity research division cut its price target on Circle stock.

Needham

Needham is an investment bank and research firm that reaffirmed a Buy rating on Circle stock and raised its price target.

TD Cowen

TD Cowen is the investment bank whose research arm reaffirmed a Buy rating on Circle stock and raised its price target.

Polymarket

Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where users trade on the outcomes of events, including Circle's earnings.

The details

Circle's main revenue source is interest income on reserves that back USDC, which are held mostly in short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash. That means revenue depends on both the size of USDC circulation and prevailing short-term interest rates. Mizuho's price-target cut rests on the view that AI personal assistant agents could reduce the demand for, or the activity behind, USDC balances over time.

Friday: Circle shares closed 9.31% lower at $72.54 during regular trading.
Over the last three months: Insiders carried out 14 sales worth $25.4 million.
Third quarter: USDC circulation rose modestly to $74.58 billion.
Wednesday, November 4, 2026: Circle releases quarterly earnings before the opening bell.

Market Landscape

Circle's results are being read against a backdrop of rising USDC circulation and a stock that has already fallen sharply this week. The consensus Buy rating and $108 average price target point to an analyst view that differs from the market's recent reaction.

Operators who accept or send payments in USDC should watch whether Circle's report signals stable or shrinking stablecoin balances. Finance teams with exposure to stablecoin-based treasury or payment flows should review those positions with a qualified accountant.

The takeaway

Circle's results will show whether USDC's growth is offsetting concerns about AI agents, a question worth tracking alongside the reserve-income figures in its next filing. Businesses that rely on stablecoin settlement should monitor Circle's reported circulation and interest income each quarter as indicators of the category's stability.

What happens next

Circle releases its quarterly earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, when results will be measured against the $0.37 GAAP EPS threshold and the $791.2 million revenue forecast.