October Payrolls Forecast to Rise 45,000 Jobs
Employers planning fourth-quarter hiring should weigh the 45,000-job forecast against the official November 6 report.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Employment
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KPMG projects U.S. nonfarm payrolls will rise by 45,000 in October, according to a forecast issued October 30. The projection, which assumes a 50,000 gain in private-sector jobs and a 5,000 decline in public-sector employment, is set for comparison with the official jobs report due Friday, November 6.
Why it matters
Employers and hiring managers are watching whether the labor market is still adding jobs at a steady pace after a weak September. The projected October gain would exceed September's 29,000 increase, and the combined 60,000-job downward revision to July and August payrolls means earlier hiring estimates are being cut back.
KPMG's forecast of 45,000 October payroll jobs compares with September's 29,000 gain, and the September report showed unemployment at 4.2%. The projection includes a 50,000 private-sector increase and a 5,000 public-sector decline, while July and August payrolls were revised down by a combined 60,000.
The players
KPMG
KPMG is a global professional services firm offering audit, tax, and advisory work to businesses, and its economic forecasts are widely used by corporate planners.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the federal agency that compiles the monthly nonfarm payroll and unemployment data businesses use to plan hiring and wages.
The details
Nonfarm payrolls count the jobs added or lost across most U.S. employers outside farming and a few other categories, and they are the headline measure economists and business owners use to gauge hiring. KPMG's forecast splits the expected gain into private employers adding 50,000 jobs and government employers shedding 5,000. The projection will be judged against the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, which will show whether private hiring is holding up as the public sector contracts.
Timeline
October 30: KPMG issued its October payroll forecast.
Friday, November 6: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official October jobs report.
Market Landscape
The projection follows the September jobs report, which revised July and August payrolls down by a combined 60,000 jobs, so the October forecast is being read against weaker recent hiring. Whether a rebound to 45,000 jobs holds would show if the slowdown in revisions is a one-month correction or the start of a sustained pickup.
Employers planning fourth-quarter staffing should compare their own hiring plans against the November 6 jobs report rather than the 45,000 forecast alone. Businesses that rely on public-sector contracts should note the projected 5,000-job decline in government employment as a signal of softer demand from that segment.
The takeaway
Operators should treat the November 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the real test of the 45,000-job forecast and check it against their own hiring pipeline. Track whether private-sector gains of 50,000 jobs hold, since that is the segment most relevant to businesses hiring for growth.
What happens next
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official October jobs report on Friday, November 6, which will show whether payroll growth matches KPMG's 45,000 projection.
Further reading
For broader context on hiring trends, see the Employment section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by TokenPost.
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