Farm Commodity Prices Retreat From 2022 Peaks
Crop, dairy and poultry producers should plan for lower prices and softer farm income than last year's record levels.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Agriculture
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The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri released its annual U.S. Baseline Outlook report, projecting that prices for most crops, poultry and dairy products will retreat in 2023 from recent peaks. Operators across U.S. farming, livestock and food supply chains should plan for lower commodity prices and shrinking farm income after 2022's record levels.
Why it matters
Higher fertilizer, fuel and feed costs drove a sharp rise in farm production expenses in 2022, and drought, high feed costs and avian influenza limited livestock supplies. The outlook suggests those cost pressures are easing even as beef output is set to fall by the largest amount since 2014, so margins for producers may tighten from peak levels.
Net farm income reached record levels in 2022 and is likely to fall back in 2023, while forecast ten-year averages put corn at $4.36/bushel, soybeans at $10.93/bu., fed cattle at $155.40/cwt., lean hogs at $56.29/cwt. and broilers at $107.27/lb. The figures are model projections, so actual prices will depend on conditions that the outlook cannot fully anticipate.
The players
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU)
A university-based agricultural economics research institute that publishes the annual U.S. Baseline Outlook used to model agricultural and biofuel markets and to compare farm policy scenarios.
The details
The report carries projections for agricultural and biofuel markets and serves as a reference point for evaluating alternative agricultural policy scenarios. Drought-reduced cattle inventories shrink the number of animals available for slaughter, which tightens livestock supply. Cattle, hog, poultry and milk prices all rose in 2022, but the projected easing of input costs and supply constraints is expected to narrow the gap between those prices and farm production expenses.
Timeline
2022: Consumer food price inflation jumped to 9.9% and net farm income reached record levels.
2023: Projected crop, poultry and dairy prices retreat from their peaks.
2024: Consumer food price inflation is projected to fall under 2%.
2025: Production costs are projected to decline further.
Market Landscape
The FAPRI-MU baseline serves as a shared projection that policymakers and industry use to test alternative farm and biofuel scenarios. This year's outlook signals a shift from the peak-price environment of 2022 toward moderating prices and lower farm income.
Operators should budget for lower crop, dairy and poultry prices in 2023 than in 2022 while expecting farm production costs to decline gradually. Livestock businesses should plan around tighter beef supply, since beef production is projected to fall by the largest amount since 2014.
The takeaway
Food and farm input purchasers should watch the next annual baseline update to see whether projected cost declines hold. Track the projected 2023 decline in consumer food price inflation against your own input and wholesale price contracts before renewing supplier terms.
Further reading
For broader context on how these price and income shifts affect growers and ranchers, see Agriculture.
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