Farm Sentiment Falls as Rates and Grain Prices Weigh

Farm operators face tighter cash flow as input costs and borrowing rates weigh on near-term plans.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Agriculture

Isometric editorial illustration of weathered grain bins on flat farmland beneath a pale sky, with harvested grain spilling from a conveyor, evoking farm economic strain. — Farm sentiment fell eight points to 117 in March as rising interest rates and weaker wheat, corn, and soybean prices squeezed producers' cash flow. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Do you think now is a good time to make large purchases given rising interest rates?

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 8 points to 117 in March, based on a telephone survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers conducted March 13-17. Producers' outlook weakened as interest rates rose and grain prices slipped, with the Future Expectations Index also down 8 points to 113.

Why it matters

Rising interest rates and weaker prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans from mid-February through mid-March were key factors behind the lower reading. For farm operators, that combination pressures cash flow and makes capital decisions harder to justify.

The Ag Economy Barometer fell to 117 in March, with the Current Conditions Index at 126 and the Future Expectations Index at 113, each down 8 points from February. The Farm Financial Performance Index held at 86, while 34% of respondents named higher input costs and 25% named rising interest rates as their top concern for the year ahead.

The players

Purdue University

A public research university whose agricultural economics program co-produces the Ag Economy Barometer, a monthly gauge of producer sentiment.

CME Group

The Chicago-based derivatives exchange that operates the futures markets for grains, livestock, and dairy and co-sponsors the Ag Economy Barometer.

The details

The barometer is calculated monthly from responses of 400 U.S. agricultural producers surveyed by telephone, with an open-ended comment question at the end of each interview. Weaker prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans through mid-March, combined with higher borrowing costs, drove the drop in sentiment. Input costs remain a central worry, though they peaked last summer, when 53% of respondents cited them as a concern.

March 13-17, 2026: Telephone survey of 400 agricultural producers conducted.
Mid-February through mid-March 2026: Weaker commodity prices contributed to lower sentiment.
Last summer: Peak concern about higher input costs, cited by 53% of respondents.
September 2020: Short-term farmland value index reached its weakest prior reading.

Market Landscape

The March drop comes as the Short-Term Farmland Value Index runs about 32 points below year-earlier levels, approaching the September 2020 low recorded in the barometer's history. Meanwhile the Long-Term Farmland Value Index rose 5 points to 142, a split that suggests producers are discounting near-term pressure while still holding a longer-term view on land.

Operators should weigh the combined pressure of input costs and higher interest rates when reviewing cash flow and planned equipment or land purchases. Producers and their lenders may want to revisit operating budgets against current commodity prices before committing to new capital spending.

The takeaway

The sharpest signal here is that producers are cautious on near-term cash flow even as longer-term land values hold up, so the decision point is financing exposure, not land prices alone. Track the next barometer reading and the Short-Term Farmland Value Index, and review loan terms and interest-rate exposure with a qualified agricultural lender or accountant.