Farm Equipment Growth Slows in 2027 Forecast
Dealers and manufacturers should plan for softer orders as farmers delay capital spending.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Agriculture
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Stantec economists forecast muted growth for U.S. farm equipment manufacturing in 2027, with growth expected to decelerate after a current year of expansion. The projection, presented as analysis rather than breaking news, reflects a weak farm capital investment index and rising corn and soybean prices.
Why it matters
Farm equipment manufacturers and dealers face a near-term slowdown because farmers currently view the present as a poor time to invest in capital equipment. The index's eight-month lead over production volume means order softness could reach manufacturers before 2027 results are visible.
Farm equipment manufacturing volume is growing 9.2% year-over-year, while the farm capital investment index sits below the 100 threshold that separates positive from negative investment sentiment. The index leads production volume by about eight months, and corn and soybean prices lead manufacturing by about three months.
The players
Stantec
Stantec is a global consulting and engineering firm whose economists produced this farm equipment manufacturing forecast.
The details
Economists projected industry growth by shifting interest rates forward 24 months and inverting the series to model future conditions. They then compared the farm capital investment index against equipment production volume to identify lead timing. Because farmers currently do not view the present as a good time to invest, yet expect to produce more next year, the model points to a decelerating and eventually peaking production trajectory.
Timeline
2026: Current year of farm equipment manufacturing growth and investment decisions.
2027: Forecast year of muted, decelerating industry growth.
Market Landscape
The forecast rests on a lead-lag relationship in which the farm capital investment index signals equipment production roughly eight months ahead, a pattern this analysis uses to place the 2027 slowdown. Corn and soybean prices, which lead manufacturing by about three months, are currently accelerating, a factor that partly offsets weak investment sentiment.
Equipment dealers and manufacturers should plan for softer orders in 2027 as farmers hold back on capital spending despite a 9.2% year-over-year gain in current volume. Operators in the sector should watch the farm capital investment index, which has historically led production by about eight months, as an early signal for procurement and inventory decisions.
The takeaway
The farm capital investment index leading production by about eight months makes it a practical early-warning metric for equipment operators. Track it against corn and soybean price moves each quarter when setting 2027 inventory and staffing plans.
Further reading
Explore more Agriculture coverage for context on how commodity prices and farm investment shape equipment demand.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Farm Equipment.
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