Oncor Plans 20% Capital Boost as Texas Demand Grows
Texas businesses with large electric loads should expect delivery investment to shape future rates in Oncor's service territory.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Utilities
Live Poll
Do you expect your household's electricity costs to rise over the next few years?
Oncor, the Texas utility serving more than 14 million customers, expects its five-year base capital plan of $47.5 billion to rise about 20% in its upcoming annual update. The increase reflects continued customer and load growth, and the company recently set a new system peak of 33 GW, up 6% over the prior record.
Why it matters
Utilities building out capacity to serve rising demand typically pass infrastructure costs through rates, which affects the electricity bills operators pay. Oncor's parent Sempra, meanwhile, faces separate pressure from California wildfire liability and a regulatory dispute, showing how regional regulatory risk can shape a utility's financing capacity.
Oncor's base capital plan totals $47.5 billion over five years and is expected to rise 20% in its next annual update. The utility serves more than 14 million Texas customers and recently recorded a system peak of 33 GW, a 6% increase over the prior record.
The players
Oncor
Oncor is a Texas electric transmission and distribution utility serving more than 14 million customers, majority-owned by Sempra.
Sempra
Sempra is a diversified energy infrastructure company with utility operations in Texas and California and a large majority stake in Oncor.
California Public Utilities Commission
The CPUC is the California state agency that regulates investor-owned utility rates and service, including Sempra's California utilities.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings is a major credit rating agency whose assessments influence borrowing costs for utilities such as Sempra's subsidiaries.
The details
Oncor is attributing its capital plan growth to continued customer and load growth across multiple sectors, meaning more connected demand requires more transmission and distribution investment. Sempra, which owns a majority stake in Oncor, reported that peak in its third-quarter results. Separately, Sempra's California subsidiaries face uncertainty tied to the January 2025 Eaton fire, which could materially reduce or exhaust the state's Wildfire Fund.
Timeline
January 2025: The Eaton fire occurred, with potential damages affecting California's Wildfire Fund.
2024: The California Public Utilities Commission issued a general rate case decision that Sempra later petitioned.
September 2026: Fitch Ratings called the California legislature's failure to pass a wildfire liability bill a significant adverse credit development.
Last week: The CPUC issued a proposed decision denying Sempra's petition for modification.
Thursday, November 5, 2026: Sempra discussed the Oncor capital increase on its third-quarter earnings call.
Market Landscape
Texas utilities are expanding capital plans to meet load growth, while Sempra's California subsidiaries remain exposed to wildfire liability risk following the January 2025 Eaton fire. Fitch's September assessment of the stalled California wildfire bill shows how state-level liability rules can shape the credit profile of a parent company's regional utilities.
Operators in Texas should expect electricity delivery costs to reflect Oncor's expanding investment as rate cases follow capital growth. Businesses with large electric loads should monitor rate filings and consult qualified energy counsel on how any rate changes affect contracts.
The takeaway
Capital plan growth at Oncor signals that Texas transmission and distribution costs are likely to rise as load expands. Operators should watch the upcoming annual update and any Texas rate filings, and review electricity contract terms with a qualified energy advisor.
What happens next
The CPUC proposed decision on Sempra's petition is pending, and Oncor's annual update with the revised capital plan is upcoming.
Further reading
For broader context on how demand growth is reshaping the sector, see the Utilities section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Utility Dive.
Live Poll
Do you expect your household's electricity costs to rise over the next few years?
