Oil Demand Seen Plateauing in 2030s, Then Declining
Oil and gas operators should weigh a projected 2030s demand plateau against their long-range production and capital plans.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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TotalEnergies published its eighth Energy Outlook on November 2, projecting 2.6°C to 2.8°C of warming by 2100 under its Trends scenario, which extends current policies, technology, and consumer behavior. Oil and gas operators should note that the outlook sees global petroleum demand rising and leveling off in the 2030s before gradually declining.
Why it matters
The outlook maps three pathways through 2060 and argues that grid constraints, geopolitical tensions, and costs limit how fast low-carbon technologies can be deployed. Its projections frame how long hydrocarbon demand is expected to hold up, which bears directly on upstream investment horizons and capital planning.
The outlook compares three scenarios, with the Trends case projecting 2.6°C to 2.8°C of warming by 2100 against 2.3°C to 2.4°C under Momentum and 1.8°C to 1.9°C under Rupture. Low-carbon energy investment reached $2.1 trillion in 2025, up from $1.2 trillion in 2015, while fossil fuels still supply about 80% of U.S. primary energy today.
The players
TotalEnergies
A major integrated oil and gas company with upstream, downstream, and low-carbon power businesses, whose Energy Outlook is a widely read guide to long-term industry demand.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
An intergovernmental bloc of advanced economies whose members are approaching carbon neutrality under the Momentum scenario by 2050.
The details
The Trends scenario assumes that grid constraints, geopolitical tensions, and costs slow the deployment of low-carbon technologies, so current policy direction and consumer behavior carry forward. Under that assumption, global petroleum product demand keeps rising until the 2030s, levels off, and then declines gradually. The Momentum and Rupture scenarios differ mainly in how quickly low-carbon technologies scale, which is what separates their warming outcomes from the Trends path.
Timeline
2015: Low-carbon energy investment stood at $1.2 trillion.
2025: Low-carbon energy investment reached $2.1 trillion.
2030s: Global petroleum demand levels off before gradually declining.
2050: OECD approaches carbon neutrality under the Momentum scenario.
2060: U.S. fossil fuel share of primary energy falls to about 60%.
Market Landscape
The outlook extends TotalEnergies' scenario series, which the company uses to frame long-run demand for oil and gas against its low-carbon investment plans. Its projections of demand plateauing in the 2030s place the company's gas and petroleum outlook within a broader industry debate over how quickly hydrocarbon demand will decline.
Operators in oil and gas should factor the projected 2030s plateau in petroleum demand into long-range capital planning and production horizons. Procurement and finance teams should stress-test assumptions about the timing of demand decline against the scenarios in this outlook.
The takeaway
The core operating insight is that demand timing, not just the direction of the energy transition, drives how businesses should plan spending over the next decade. Track the next TotalEnergies Energy Outlook edition and compare its demand curve against your own production assumptions.
Further reading
For broader context on how long-term demand forecasts shape upstream planning, explore our Oil and Gas coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by TokenPost.
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