Online Grocery Orders Climb as Store Sales Slip
Grocers with physical stores must weigh how shifting online demand will reshape staffing, inventory and delivery capacity.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Retail
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Online grocery orders rose 15.5 percent in the week of September 28 to October 4 compared with a year earlier, while in-store grocery sales fell 2.8 percent over the same period. Retail operators selling food and everyday goods face a shifting channel mix heading into the holiday season.
Why it matters
Consumers are scrutinizing grocery purchases more closely as inflation and affordability pressures persist, and that scrutiny is moving spending toward digital channels. Operators with physical stores are seeing traffic and sales shift as shoppers trade between formats.
Circana's tracking of 15 product categories shows online grocery orders grew 15.5 percent year over year in the September 28 to October 4 period, while in-store sales fell 2.8 percent. Online grocery sales are projected to reach $26.1 billion in 2026, up from $23.5 billion in 2025, and roughly one of every four dollars in October through December retail sales is expected to be spent online.
The players
Circana
Circana is a market research firm that tracks consumer purchasing and retail sales across product categories for manufacturers and retailers.
The details
Shoppers are becoming more deliberate in food purchasing, cutting waste, balancing price tiers and pack sizes, and leaning on private-label goods without sacrificing quality they value. Refrigerated meals and ingredients posted the largest year-over-year gain among the 15 categories analyzed, with candy, ice cream and frozen desserts ranking second. Produce sales remain sluggish following July's Cyclospora outbreak, which sickened thousands and raised food supply concerns.
Timeline
July: Cyclospora outbreak sickened thousands and raised food supply concerns.
September 28 to October 4: Online grocery orders rose 15.5 percent year over year.
October to December: Roughly $1 of every $4 in retail sales is spent online.
Cyber Week: Online hygiene and clothing basics sales are projected to surge 150 and 210 percent, respectively.
Market Landscape
Circana's category-level tracking places the online grocery gain alongside a broader shift in which online share of retail spending is climbing into the holiday quarter. The grocery channel shift is occurring against a backdrop of softer produce demand following the July Cyclospora outbreak, which has kept fresh-food categories lagging behind packaged and prepared categories.
Grocers and food retailers should review how their online ordering and delivery capacity is positioned for the holiday period, since the projected 2026 online grocery growth and Cyber Week hygiene spikes will pull demand toward digital channels. Operators should also watch produce sales and private-label mix as shoppers balance affordability against quality.
The takeaway
Operators should plan holiday inventory and fulfillment around a channel mix that continues to tilt online, with online grocery sales projected to reach $26.1 billion in 2026. Track weekly channel data from Circana and in-store traffic to judge whether the shift is accelerating into the fourth quarter.
Further reading
For the broader shift in how shoppers buy everyday goods, see more Retail coverage across our business section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Independent.
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